Fernando Tatis Jr. Sets His Sights on an Extraordinary Season
San Diego Padres' right fielder, Fernando Tatis Jr., made quite an impression during the media sessions at the 2025 and 2026 Padres FanFest. He exuded confidence, sharing how revitalized he felt and expressing optimism about entering what he believes will be the most productive years of his career. Back in 2025, Tatis boldly asserted that when both his physical health and mental clarity align, he considers himself the best player in baseball.
Fast forward to 2026, and during a media availability session, Tatis candidly addressed the mechanical challenges that hindered his performance in 2025. While he didn't delve into specifics, he assured fans that these swing mechanics were no longer a concern, allowing him to focus on his game moving forward. When participating in a player forum Q&A, he set an ambitious goal for himself: to deliver an MVP-worthy season as a way to honor the loyalty of his fanbase. Tatis expressed a deep sense of responsibility to enhance his game and fulfill the promises he's made to the fans.
For those who have followed the Padres closely, it's important to recognize that Tatis's journey has been marred by scrutiny since his suspension related to performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs). There are ongoing allegations suggesting that his remarkable achievements in 2020 and 2021 may have stemmed from steroid use, leading some to believe he might never replicate those feats without resorting to unfair advantages. His career has certainly faced its share of hurdles. The shoulder injury sustained in 2021 plagued his swing until it was surgically repaired in September 2022. Additionally, two surgeries on his wrist have raised eyebrows, with speculation lingering around whether these issues contributed to his prior steroid use—despite his explanation regarding treatment for ringworm.
Upon returning in 2023 from his suspension and wrist surgeries, Tatis displayed a decline in both bat speed and exit velocity. Only he can truly ascertain whether this drop-off was a result of recovery from his injuries or linked to his past PED use. However, a look at his performance metrics from 2024 and 2025 suggests that his statistics are not drastically different from those recorded before the steroid controversy, with one notable exception.
According to Baseball Savant, Tatis posted an average exit velocity of 93.5 mph in 2024, placing him in the 97th percentile, compared to a top-tier exit velocity of 95.9 mph in 2020. His hard-hit percentage for 2024 ranked him in the 99th percentile, slightly shy of the perfect score he achieved in 2020. Interestingly, while his bat speed in 2024 was recorded at the 86th percentile, there was no similar measurement available for 2020.
In 2025, Tatis's average exit velocity slightly dipped to 93.3 mph, landing him in the 95th percentile. His hard-hit percentage fell to the 93rd percentile, and his bat speed decreased to the 77th percentile. A particularly puzzling statistic from last season was his sweet spot percentage. Historically, Tatis averaged between 40-45 percent when performing well; however, in 2025, this figure plummeted to a mere four percent—the lowest of his entire career.
This decline has evidently impacted his power output, as reflected in a slugging percentage decrease of 42 points. Throughout the season, he found himself making near-constant adjustments to his swing. On a brighter note, he recorded the best strikeout rate of his career, showcasing improvement over three consecutive seasons. His walk rate also reached new heights, and he achieved his lowest chase rate ever.
So, what do these numbers really tell us? Beyond fluctuations in his launch angle—something that has varied greatly throughout his time in the league—the primary concern with Tatis's swing seems to be his struggle to consistently make contact with the sweet spot of the bat. The accompanying statistics indicate he closely resembles the exciting player who burst onto the Padres scene in 2019 and had a breakout year in 2020.
Is this merely a mechanical issue, and can it be rectified? Tatis's comments during media interviews suggest he has taken steps to correct his swing problems and is optimistic about embarking on what he anticipates will be an incredibly successful phase of his career.
To truly move past the shadow of steroid allegations, Tatis needs to not only replicate but ideally surpass his past accomplishments prior to his suspension. If he manages to recreate the success he enjoyed during his first full season in the majors while adhering to regular PED testing, he could potentially silence critics and exceed their expectations.
There's no doubt that Tatis Jr. is eager to rise to the occasion. His evident passion and commitment to both the team and its fans are commendable. He strives to deliver performances that reflect his immense potential. Tatis wears his heart on his sleeve, which can serve as both an asset and a drawback. Last season, it was clear he was grappling with dissatisfaction. Fans hope that this upcoming season will offer a glimpse of the true Fernando Tatis Jr.
