The NHL's MVP Race is Heating Up: Who Will Take Home the Hart Trophy in 2026?
As we cross the midpoint of the 2025-26 NHL season, the race for the Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP) is intensifying, with some unexpected contenders emerging. Last season, Connor Hellebuyck became the first goaltender to win the MVP since Carey Price in 2015, proving that goalies can indeed steal the spotlight. But this year, the competition is fiercer than ever, with a mix of established stars and rising talents vying for the top honor. And this is the part most people miss: the MVP race isn’t just about stats—it’s about impact, consistency, and the ability to carry a team. So, who’s leading the pack? Let’s dive into the top-10 candidates as of January 2026, with a few honorary mentions who are knocking on the door.
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No. 10 - Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning
The lone goaltender on this list, Vasilevskiy started the season slowly but has since been unstoppable. After a rough 0-3-2 start with a 3.41 GAA and .885 SV%, he’s rebounded with a 19-4-0 record, a 2.03 GAA, and a .921 SV% in his last 23 starts. During Tampa Bay’s 11-game win streak, he’s been a wall, posting a .911 SV% and shutting down the Penguins with 27 saves in his latest outing. His 14.6 Goals Above Expected rank him third among goalies with at least 20 games played. But here’s where it gets controversial: Is a goalie’s impact enough to warrant MVP consideration in a league dominated by skaters?
No. 9 - David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins
At 29, Pastrnak remains the engine of Boston’s offense, keeping them in the Wild Card hunt. Through 42 games, he’s scored 19 goals and 37 assists, on pace to shatter his career-high 63 assists from 2023-24. During Boston’s recent six-game surge, he’s tallied four goals and 11 assists, including six helpers in a 10-2 rout of the Rangers. His 58% Corsi% and second-place ranking in shot attempts per 60 minutes among forwards highlight his dominance.
No. 8A - Mikko Rantanen, Dallas Stars
Rantanen has seamlessly transitioned to Dallas, racking up 18 goals and 44 assists in 46 games. His 62 points place him sixth in the league, and he’s been on fire lately, with 20 points in his last 14 games. After a modest 88-point season last year, he’s on track to return to his 100+ point form from 2022-23. His 65.8% On-Ice Goals% (via MoneyPuck) underscores his offensive prowess.
No. 8B - Jason Robertson, Dallas Stars
Robertson shares the No. 8 spot with his teammate, proving Dallas’ dynamic duo is unstoppable. Tied for third in goals, Robertson’s efficiency as a scorer is MVP-worthy. His 65.5% On-Ice Expected Goals% and third-place ranking in xGoals (MoneyPuck) highlight his impact in the offensive zone. Since December 19, he’s scored seven goals in 12 games, with 37 shots on goal.
No. 7 - Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
The lone defenseman on this list, Makar is a Norris Trophy favorite and the only blueliner to surpass 50 points this season. With 14 goals and 39 assists, he’s a force on the ice. His 62% On-Ice Expected Goals% and 4.43 Expected Goals Per 60 Minutes (MoneyPuck) lead all defensemen with at least 900 minutes played. But here’s the question: Can a defenseman truly be the league’s MVP in a forward-dominated game?
No. 6 - Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild
Kaprizov edges out teammate Matthew Boldy with elite underlying metrics. Despite sitting 12th in points, his 21.4 xGoals (MoneyPuck) rank sixth among skaters with at least 500 minutes. His 166 shots place him fifth in the league, and his 60.2% On-Ice Expected Goals% trails only four forwards league-wide. Expect a scoring surge from the former fifth-round pick soon.
No. 5 - Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers
Draisaitl is a perennial MVP contender, sitting fifth in points (67) with 25 goals. Since December, he’s tallied 36 points, trailing only McDavid, MacKinnon, and Kucherov. His consistency and goal-scoring ability keep him in the conversation.
No. 4 - Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks
The biggest surprise on this list, Celebrini has single-handedly kept the Sharks in playoff contention. With 70 points (24 goals, 46 assists) through the halfway mark, he’s already surpassed his 63-point rookie season. His 21.5% Relative Expected Goals% (MoneyPuck) ranks sixth among skaters with at least 750 minutes. If the Sharks make the playoffs, Celebrini could leap into the MVP conversation.
No. 3 - Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning
Kucherov’s 67 points (fourth in the league) and recent play earn him the No. 3 spot. Since December, he trails only McDavid, MacKinnon, and Draisaitl in points. During Tampa Bay’s 11-game win streak, he’s tallied 25 points (10 goals) and nine power-play points. His 5.49 On-Ice Expected Goals Per 60 Minutes (MoneyPuck) leads the league.
No. 2 - Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
McDavid is in the midst of one of his most dominant stretches, riding a career-high 20-game point streak with 19 goals and 27 assists. His 23.5% Relative Expected Goals% (MoneyPuck) is second in the league. If he maintains this pace, he could reclaim the top spot.
No. 1 - Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
MacKinnon leads the league’s most dominant team with 81 points (36 goals) in 45 games. His 68.3% On-Ice Expected Goals% (MoneyPuck) is the highest in the league, and he’s the only skater with over 200 shots on goal. With the Avalanche on pace for historic greatness, MacKinnon is the clear MVP frontrunner—for now.
On the Outside Looking In
- Matt Boldy, MIN
- Tage Thompson, BUF
- Sidney Crosby, PIT
- Connor Bedard, CHI
- Zach Werenski, CBJ
- Ilya Sorokin, NYI
- Scott Wedgewood, COL
Thought-Provoking Question: With goalies and defensemen rarely winning the MVP, is the award inherently biased toward forwards? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!
