What are they waiting for? A snow-day snapshot
The Capitals' recent slump is a mystery, with a stark contrast between their past glory and current struggles. The team's last multi-game winning streak was on December 3, when they temporarily took the lead in the Eastern Conference (https://russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2025/12/04/capitals-lead-eastern-conference-metropolitan-division-standings/). However, as of this snowy Monday morning, Moneypuck (https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm) predicts only a 37% chance of playoff success.
The Capitals' performance is a puzzle. They rank ninth and tenth in shot attempts and expected goals during five-on-five play, which is a solid B on a report card. But this grade doesn't tell the whole story. For 25 games, they were a top-three possession team, and then something changed. Now, they've been below 50% for 20 games.
This column doesn't offer a secret answer to the Capitals' decline. Instead, it highlights the numbers and expresses frustration over the lack of action. Let's take a closer look at the forwards and defenders.
Forwards
Player, TOI, SA%, xGF%, GF%, PDO
Wilson, 576, 57.1, 59.2, 66.6, 1.03
Lapierre, 418, 57.1, 58.6, 55.5, 1.00
Protas, 731, 55.3, 54.0, 59.7, 1.01
Milano, 225, 52.3, 52.8, 57.7, 1.02
Strome, 710, 49.9, 52.7, 56.0, 1.03
Sourdif, 635, 52.2, 52.4, 64.8, 1.04
Beauvillier, 724, 50.9, 51.5, 49.8, 1.00
Ovechkin, 673, 51.1, 51.5, 56.7, 1.04
Duhaime, 511, 47.0, 50.6, 38.4, 0.97
Frank, 458, 46.6, 50.2, 59.3, 1.04
McMichael, 673, 48.2, 48.5, 53.8, 1.03
Leonard, 543, 47.2, 47.3, 60.6, 1.04
Dowd, 559, 48.4, 46.7, 43.2, 0.99
Defenders
Player, TOI, SA%, xGF%, GF%, PDO
Chychrun, 937, 54.2, 53.7, 67.2, 1.05
Roy, 936, 51.4, 52.2, 54.9, 1.01
Carlson, 806, 53.5, 52.1, 59.4, 1.03
van Riemsdyk, 525, 47.1, 51.8, 43.0, 0.98
Fehérváry, 827, 49.9, 51.2, 56.1, 1.01
Sandin, 740, 47.9, 49.1, 50.1, 1.01
Chisholm, 245, 49.6, 45.6, 51.2, 1.00
Glossary
- TOI: Time on ice in minutes, considering only five-on-five play.
- SA%: Shot-attempt percentage, the share of total shots attempted by Washington while the skater is on the ice during five-on-five play. 50% is even; higher is better.
- xGF%: Expected-goals percentage, the share of expected goals generated by Washington while the skater is on the ice during five-on-five play. 50% is even; higher is better.
- GF%: Goals-for percentage, the share of total goals scored by Washington when the skater is on the ice during five-on-five play. 50% is even; higher is better.
- PDO: The sum of Washington's shooting percentage and saving percentage when the skater is on the ice during five-on-five play. One means league average. The acronym doesn't stand for anything, and yes, I hate it.
Notes
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The Capitals' struggles are evident, and the team is searching for answers. The column concludes by emphasizing the need for action and invites discussion on the team's performance.
